{"as_of":"2026-10-20","study_type":"targeted evidence audit, descriptive reanalysis, conditional scenarios and proposed protocol","claims":[{"id":"O01","evidence_class":"observation","claim":"A supplied-oil batch was reported at 8.1 ug/kg; cited limit 2.0 ug/kg.","source":"https://www.fda.gov.tw/TC/newsContent.aspx?cid=4&id=t634379","limits":"Company self-test relayed by regulator; not random market sampling or every downstream bottle."},{"id":"O02","evidence_class":"observation","claim":"Selected finished-product tests reported 4.3, 3.8 and 2.6 ug/kg.","source":"data/oil_test_observations.csv","limits":"See per-row original URLs. Different notices may share samples or upstream batches."},{"id":"O03","evidence_class":"historical_selected_records","claim":"Sparse 2021-2026 tests do not establish historical sustained supra-limit finished oil exposure.","source":"https://www.fda.gov.tw/TC/includes/GetFile.ashx?id=f639209533902835574&iid=13727&type=3","limits":"Report p.27. 14.8 ug/kg intermediate oil must not be treated as a household finished-oil measurement."},{"id":"D01","evidence_class":"descriptive_reanalysis","claim":"Taiwan 2013-2023 crude breast rate +53.0%; WHO2000 ASR +30.1%.","source":"https://www.hpa.gov.tw/Pages/ashx/GetFile.ashx?lang=c&type=1&sid=9e08758933474930a69e2946e17d63ea","limits":"Female population denominator. WHO2000 names weights, not a world rate."},{"id":"D02","evidence_class":"descriptive_reanalysis","claim":"Over2013–2023,Korea crude increase69.6%exceeded Taiwan53.0%; this is a ten-year comparison,not a general ranking for all windows.","source":"data/country_inputs.json","limits":"Different Korean report vintages and Japan 2016 transition retained. Singapore annual history unverified."},{"id":"D03","evidence_class":"first_party_descriptive_analytics","claim":"Oiltrace exported session-estimate sums were10828 on16-22July2026 and100 on13-19October2026, a99.1% decline.","source":"data/oiltrace_attention_summary_20261020.json","limits":"Retrospective equal-window comparison of one self-selected advocacy site. Session estimates are not people, exposure or disease. Daily/channel estimates are not exactly additive to the report total. No government/media diversion causal effect identified."},{"id":"D04","evidence_class":"descriptive_timing_comparison","claim":"Recorded daily traffic first fell after its16July peak on17July; by19July it was76.4% below peak, before the20July notice; by28July it was97.9% below peak, before the29July announcement.","source":"data/oiltrace_timeline_analysis_20261020.json","limits":"Selected source-linked communication dates, not a complete media census. Peak may reflect early collection/launch publicity. No pre-collection baseline, within-day ordering, formal break-point estimate or identified causal media/government effect."},{"id":"D05","evidence_class":"descriptive_channel_decomposition","claim":"On17July Direct fell29.8%, Organic Video45.6% and Organic Social3.4%, while Organic Search rose64.1%; Search first fell on18July within the selected window.","source":"data/oiltrace_channel_analysis_20261020.json","limits":"Exported daily session estimates, not people or national searches. Direct can lack referral information. Daily data cannot order within-day decreases or identify source/medium, promotion or news effects."},{"id":"D06","evidence_class":"exploratory_competing_news_audit","claim":"Dated stock-market and barrier-lake reporting overlaps the early decline; oil/food-policy items remain visible in five weekday PTS written bulletins.","source":"data/oiltrace_competing_news_20260716_20260722.json","limits":"Candidates are not ranked by reach. One publisher distributed on Apple Podcasts, not an independent second newsroom or a full media census. Synopsis order is not verified airtime or broadcast order; mutable pages checked20October. No attention-displacement or deliberate-diversion effect estimated."},{"id":"M01","evidence_class":"mechanistic_experiment","claim":"Labeled PAH4 migrated from oil to fumes with a temperature-related pattern.","source":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.psep.2024.05.072","limits":"Abstract/partial preview; PAH4 is not a validated incident BaP coefficient or human absorption rate."},{"id":"E01","evidence_class":"external_observational_association","claim":"Taiwan cumulative cooking exposure was associated with lung cancer; OR3.17, CI1.34-7.68.","source":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-63656-7","limits":"Cases2002-2010; no incident-oil/BaP measurement. Not evidence of a recent exposure onset."},{"id":"E02","evidence_class":"external_observational_heterogeneity","claim":"High associations also occur outside Taiwan; other cooking studies are null.","source":"data/cooking_comparison_audit_20261020.json","limits":"OR/HR, exposure definitions, occupations and populations differ. No valid country effect ranking."},{"id":"M02","evidence_class":"human_tissue_experiment","claim":"Orally administered tracer reached breast tissue and formed adducts.","source":"https://doi.org/10.1016/S1383-5718(00)00134-0","limits":"Participants already awaiting cancer surgery. Not new incidence, inhaled route or a fixed mutation."},{"id":"E03","evidence_class":"external_observational_heterogeneity","claim":"Breast-cancer studies of dietary and ambient PAH/BaP have positive and null results.","source":"data/bap_breast_evidence_20261019.json","limits":"Source types and measures differ; E3N analyses overlap; no event-specific association observed."},{"id":"E04","evidence_class":"external_susceptibility_analysis","claim":"High PAH/high BOADICEA joint group OR4.09, CI1.38-12.13.","source":"https://doi.org/10.1038/bjc.2017.81","limits":"80 cases156 controls; interaction p0.09; not pure BRCA or oil exposure effect; not probability."},{"id":"L01","evidence_class":"local_context","claim":"2024 survey-based summary: partnered women domestic work2.00h/day, partners0.73.","source":"https://www.iacsi.nat.gov.tw/fapi/AttFile?id=33636&type=AttFile","limits":"Official statistical summary p20; broad domestic work, not cooking exposure; no universal cultural inference."},{"id":"S01","evidence_class":"conditional_model","claim":"Four household scenarios account for cooking for4/8 diners and near-source exposure.","source":"data/household_scenarios.csv","limits":"Assumed parameters, not mean/P95/worst-case. Oil handling is not personal intake. No measured kitchen doses."},{"id":"S02","evidence_class":"conditional_risk_screen","claim":"Hypothetical20-year adult route-specific model outputs1.528-4.746 per million.","source":"https://iris.epa.gov/static/pdfs/0136tr.pdf","limits":"Not breast-specific, observed burden or event duration. Relative zeroBaP; omits full fumes and thermal generation."},{"id":"G01","evidence_class":"administrative_evidence","claim":"Reporting-system delay documented; current2024/2025 cohort completeness not obtained.","source":"https://twcr.tw/?p=3570","limits":"Does not establish deliberate suppression or that agency holds only2023 records."},{"id":"P01","evidence_class":"policy_proposal","claim":"Transparency, historical reconstruction, independent sampling/follow-up and administrative review are warranted.","source":"main.tex","limits":"Author policy judgment; lower action threshold than disease attribution; independent oversight and public correction proposed."},{"id":"P02","evidence_class":"clinical_policy_proposal","claim":"Evaluate targeted preventive support and any extra imaging through benefit-harm assessment.","source":"https://www.uspreventiveservicestaskforce.org/uspstf/recommendation/breast-cancer-screening","limits":"Not a recommendation for all oil buyers to undergo extra MRI/mammography; screening and diagnosis differ."},{"id":"H01","evidence_class":"unidentified_event_causal_effect","claim":"No estimate of event-specific BaP exposure causing breast-cancer rise is identified.","source":"main.tex","limits":"Requires historical dose, appropriate time windows, linked outcomes, person-time and confounder/screening control."},{"id":"D07","evidence_class":"retrospective_descriptive_growth_windows","claim":"Taiwan2016–2023 crude increase37.36%,Korea36.12%,US10.52%,Japan10.38%; Taiwan2021–2023 increase12.88%also largest among four verified comparisons.","source":"breast_growth_windows_2013_2016_2021_2023.json","limits":"No global or developed-country-average ranking. Different vintages,age structure,screening,calendar2016 transfer and retrospective window selection retained. No party/policy/oil causal effect identified."},{"id":"G02","evidence_class":"documented_timeline_and_policy_proposal","claim":"Notice-based system activation postponement:3August to6October2026,64calendar days. Independent continuity/preventability review and accelerated qualified surveillance proposed.","source":"reporting_system_milestones_20261020.json","limits":"Not an independent uptime test or measured annual-report delay. Existing editing and cohort review are separate workflows; not all64days established avoidable; no deliberate motive identified."},{"id":"I01","evidence_class":"qualitative_integration_and_policy_judgment","claim":"Documented contamination, plausible exposure/tissue pathways and cooking burdens support priority testing of a possible risk contribution in some exposed women; selected registry contrasts add surveillance urgency.","source":"https://doi.org/10.2903/j.efsa.2017.4971","limits":"Methodological reference only, not an EFSA assessment of this case. Exploratory author judgment, not an incident-specific association, formal regulatory signal classification, causal probability or unexplained residual excess. Dependence, mixed findings, historical timing and limited-model constraints retained."}],"public_analytics_result":{"summary":"data/oiltrace_attention_summary_20261020.json","daily_site_aggregates":"data/oiltrace_daily_sessions_20261020.csv","change_pct":-99.0764684152198,"selected_event_timeline":"data/oiltrace_event_timeline_20261020.json","descriptive_timing_analysis":"data/oiltrace_timeline_analysis_20261020.json","channel_aggregates":"data/oiltrace_channels_20260716_20260722.csv","channel_analysis":"data/oiltrace_channel_analysis_20261020.json","competing_news_audit":"data/oiltrace_competing_news_20260716_20260722.json","intentional_diversion_identified":false},"patient_data_acquired":false,"causal_effect_estimated":false,"local_path_note":"data/ paths refer to manuscript ancillary archive; public CSVs are alongside this JSON.","blog_growth_registry_revision":"2026-10-20; manuscript remains unsubmitted","hypothesis_integration_revision":"2026-10-21"}